Most Aviation Delays are Preventable
Teterboro (TEB) “Day of”, Real Time, Aircraft Landing Time Management
Root Cause of Aviation Delays, Congestion and Excess CO2
As you can see in the video above, I have the unique perspective that most airline/aviation delays, congestion and excess CO2 are easily preventable, just not by ATC.
Fortunately, we also have the system based, business focused “day of” operational solution for this problem that has been independently validated, in actual airline operations, by FAA, Embry-Riddle, GE Aviation and others to prevent these problems.
Preventing most aviation delays, congestion and excess CO2, while much easier than most would believe, must first start by identifying the true root cause of the problem, something airlines/operators have yet to accomplish.
As a 40-year pilot (USAF, United B400 Captain, retired), with decades of expertise in airline operations and ATC, it is clear that what we are doing to mitigate airline delays, congestion and excess CO2, is not working. For over 4 decades of effort and $100s of Billions, governments have tried to solve this problem, and failed. Not only does this cost individual airlines Billions annually, but it unnecessarily reduces quality and safety while increasing CO2 emissions.
Conversely, there is a path forward that has the ability to reshape the airline/aviation sector by rapidly and inexpensively fixing the airline industry’s “day of” operational problem, starting by putting the passenger where promised, when promised 24/7-365, at a much higher level.
But, as I said, the first step in fixing any problem is properly defining the root cause, ala W. Edwards Deming. What was true 40 years ago is typically no longer valid today.
In aviation, today’s truth is that the root cause of most airline delays is the highly variable, yet predictable and easily preventable, “day of” point overloads of our aviation assets (airports, runways, airspace, ramp, gates, ATC, etc.), which can only be efficiently managed internally by each individual airline/operator, and only during the “day of“.
Not by ATC, not by FAA/Eurocontrol, not by adjusting schedules, not by a capacity limitations, not by a focus on D0, not by airports and not by labor. Only the individual airline can expertly prevent delays by internally rebuilding their “day of” production line, day in and day out, 24/7-365, starting with the real time management of the movement of their aircraft. Who lands first, second, third, etc. is crucial to the success and efficiency of the individual airline/operator’s “day of” operation, yet is unnecessarily left to random chance.
And until the airlines correct this internal airline problem, nothing ATC can do will reduce today’s airline delay problem.
The random point overload problem is graphically depicted in the 2 arrival LaGuardia demand slides below. The 60-minute bin size slide shows minimal overloads, while the 15-minute bin slide size depicts numerous point overloads. Same day, same airport, same capacity and same demand, yet it is these short duration point overloads that forces ATC to delay aircraft.
In fact, to deal with the random point overload, the only “day of” option the ATC controller has is delay, as shown below. Slow the aircraft down, vector the aircraft on a longer route or increase the length of the final approach to the runway to move the aircraft backward in time.
Conversely, an individual airline has the “day of” data, business goals (schedule, gate availability, crew legality, fuel, maintenance, galleys, lavs, etc.) and capability to predict the point overload hours in advance and, by partnering with the pilot to manage the enroute speed of the aircraft, adjust the arrival time for each of their aircraft to pull aircraft forward in time to prevent the overload.
For example, an airline might want to speed up an aircraft to land 10 minutes early because the pilots are close to becoming illegal. Or the airline might slow a late flight enroute, save fuel, and land later since the gate is not available. Or the airline may speed up a flight to make it 20 minutes early for maintenance. Or…but you get the idea.
Everything is in place to accomplish this. All that is needed is the aviation leadership to embrace a significant “day of” operational upgrade.
Yet airlines continue to unnecessarily abdicate control over the moment of their aircraft to Air Traffic Control (ATC). Of course, separation (and safety) belongs to ATC, but this leaves lots of flexibility for airlines to step in (and step up) to manage the movement of their aircraft to meet both their safety and business goals.
Further, weather, capacity, schedules, ATC equipment, etc., impact delays, but these are not the root cause of delays but are second and third level issues that exacerbate the highly variant point overloads.
In other words, aviation is looking at the delay problem incorrectly, unnecessarily wasting aircraft productivity, jet fuel, labor, airport capacity and profits.
The airline industry’s willingness to unnecessarily cede “day of” control of the movement of their aircraft to ATC makes no business sense. This is a huge mistake that costs individual large airlines $5 Billion annually (analysis on request), while reducing quality and safety.
Finally, ATH Group’s airline Arrival Flow Manager has been independently validated by FAA, Embry-Riddle University (Vitaly Guzhva, 386-212-4609, vitaly.guzhva@erau.edu), GE Aviation, Georgia Tech, Delta Air Lines and others. GreenLandings? is also supported by the Port Authority of New and New Jersey (Ralph Tamburro, 917-828-7741, Rtamburro@panynj.gov).